Thalos Capital Research

Insights

Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance, equipment, working capital, asset-based lending, and strategic debt, for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

Three proportional circles comparing year-over-year price change in the week ending July 27, 2026: van spot up 45.6 percent shown as the largest navy circle, flatbed spot up 40.6 percent, and contract linehaul pricing up 5.5 percent as a much smaller pale circle.

The Rate Recovery Is a Working Capital Event.

Van spot rates ran 45.6 percent above a year ago in late July while diesel climbed 13.8 percent in four weeks. Both movements enlarge the cash a carrier funds before it gets paid. Why a better freight market consumes capital.
Business Case & ROIBorrower Advisory
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Shaded grid comparing year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2026 for two deal size bands: transactions of $100 million or more grew 88 percent in value and 29 percent in volume, while megadeals of $5 billion or more grew 148 percent in value and 44 percent in volume, with the 148 percent figure shown in the darkest navy.

The Rebound Is Real. It Starts at $100 Million.

Second-quarter deals of $100 million or more rose 88 percent in value and 29 percent in volume, and the data that reports it does not count anything smaller. What that means for a buyer working a $5 to $50 million acquisition.
Business Case & ROIBorrower Advisory
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Ordered horizontal bars showing the net percent of surveyed lenders that eased each commercial and industrial loan term in the second quarter of 2026, led by spreads over cost of funds at 25.0 percent, then credit line size at 17.9, cost of credit lines at 12.7, maturity at 5.4, covenants at 3.6, and collateralization at 1.8.

The Terms Improved. Capturing Them Is the Work.

A net 25 percent of surveyed lenders narrowed spreads on middle-market loans last quarter, and six of eight tracked terms moved the borrower's way. Complex, regulated, and non-sponsor situations capture that only if the file fits the mandate.
Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory
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Slope chart comparing gross revenue retention for private B2B SaaS between the prior period and 2026, showing the median falling from 88 percent to 84 percent and the 75th percentile falling from 95 percent to 91 percent, both lines down four points.

Retention Fell Four Points. Your Borrowing Capacity Followed.

Median gross revenue retention for private B2B SaaS fell from 88 to 84 percent in 2026, and the top quartile fell just as far. For a company planning to borrow against contracted revenue, that four point move is a borrowing base question.
Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory
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Dumbbell chart contrasting the Federal Reserve's 2 percent inflation target with June 2026 core PCE at 3.3 percent, a gap of 1.3 points, with the 3.3 percent marker shown in navy.

Core Inflation Is Stuck at 3.3 Percent. Your Hurdle Rate Should Be Too.

June core PCE held at 3.3 percent, still above the Fed's 2 percent target, while the policy rate stayed at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Why a capital plan priced to a 2 percent world mismatches the cost of capital lenders are quoting today.
Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory
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Bar chart of June 2026 durable goods month-over-month change: headline +0.3%, ex-transportation +0.6%, core capital goods orders +0.9%, core capital goods shipments +1.9%, showing strong core business equipment activity.

The Equipment Is Already Shipping. The Financing Decision Should Not Lag It.

Core business-equipment shipments rose 1.9% in June and equipment-finance approvals sit near record highs. For manufacturers, the constraint is no longer approval. It is how the financing is structured against the asset.
Borrower AdvisoryBusiness Case & ROI
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Cover showing Q2 2026 middle-market direct-lending volume of $33.6 billion, the lowest since Q2 2023, beside a stacked bar of a bank facility's $1.6 billion committed capacity plus a $1.0 billion accordion to $2.6 billion.

The Direct-Lending Slowdown Is a Buyer's Financing Window

Middle-market direct lending hit its lowest quarter since 2023 while bank and asset-based capacity expanded. Why the buyers who run a multi-source process capture the leverage.
Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory
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Stacked bar showing single-family offices at 65 percent of NAV loan demand, ahead of general partners, UHNW individuals, and multi-family offices.

Family Offices Now Lead Demand for Portfolio-Backed Credit, and They Are Borrowing to Acquire

Single-family offices now drive 65% of NAV loan demand, and 85% of that borrowing funds acquisitions, not distributions. What the shift means for owners financing against a portfolio.
Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory
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