Thalos Capital Research

Insights

Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance, equipment, working capital, asset-based lending, and strategic debt, for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

Trend line showing global AI infrastructure spending rising from $153B in 2024 to a forecast $497B in 2026 and $1.08T in 2029, with a callout that storage took 2.4 percent of Q1 2026 spending.

The Storage Refresh You Deferred Comes Due at 2026 Prices

Storage took 2.4% of Q1 2026 AI infrastructure spending. That deferral is expiring into a component market that has repriced every quarter. What it costs, and how to structure the refresh.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

Squares pictogram showing 80 of 100 filled, representing the top of the 70 to 80 percent advance-rate band on eligible accounts receivable under a borrowing-base formula, with the 65 percent eligible inventory ceiling shown alongside.

You Are Buying a Balance Sheet and Financing It Like a Cash Flow Statement

Two facilities priced 200 to 250 basis points apart in the same week. The difference was collateral, not credit. Why acquisition debt sized only on EBITDA leaves both pricing and capacity on the table.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

Proportional circles comparing direct lending today at $1.5 to $2 trillion, the broadly syndicated market at a comparable size, and a projected $3 trillion direct lending market by 2028.

Private Credit Has Never Had More Money. The Independent Owner Still Hears No.

Direct lending now rivals the syndicated market at $1.5 to $2 trillion, but the majority flows to sponsor-backed deals. Why non-sponsor owners get declined, and what closes the gap.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Shaded grid of software categories showing similar 8 to 9 percent revenue growth priced from 1.4x to 3.0x forward revenue as of July 19, 2026.

Two Companies, the Same $6M ARR, Priced Two Turns Apart: The Gap Is Narrative, Not Revenue

Two software companies at the same $6M ARR can be priced two turns of revenue apart on category narrative alone. Here is what that gap costs in dilution, and the non-dilutive debt alternative.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

Stacked bar showing $2.3 billion of $3.0 billion in one quarter's average loan growth at a large U.S. regional bank was commercial and industrial, driven by higher utilization rather than new borrowers.

Rising Revolver Utilization Is a Liquidity Signal, Not a Growth Signal

Middle-market commercial balances are rising on higher revolver utilization, not new borrowers. With SOFR at 3.63% and September hike odds at 63%, a drawn line funding permanent assets costs twice.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

Proportional circle chart comparing three healthcare capital events in the week ending July 13, 2026, sized by value: a $1.27B medical technology take-private, a $170M dental group recapitalization, and a $110M platform raise that was 55 percent debt, totaling roughly $1.55B.

Healthcare Capital Is Not Scarce. It Is Concentrated.

Roughly $1.55B moved into healthcare businesses in one week. The largest deal ended in a sale. The other two used debt and kept ownership intact. Why the same structures rarely reach an independent practice.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Contrast chart showing a higher-grade revolver priced at 175 to 275 basis points over SOFR against a collateral-heavy asset-based revolver at 425 basis points, both priced off the same 3.50% to 3.75% funds rate.

Same Week, Same Base Rate, 250 Basis Points Apart

Two revolvers priced in the same week of July 2026 carried spreads 150 to 250 basis points apart on an identical base rate. The difference was credit tier, and tier is something a borrower can change.

Capital Markets & Trends Borrower Advisory

Comparison of two paths to owner liquidity showing a sale ending ownership at zero percent versus a recapitalization advancing 40 to 60 percent of appraised value while retaining 100 percent ownership.

Liquidity Without a Sale: The Recapitalization Most Owners Never Model

Selling is not the only way to get liquidity out of a business. A recapitalization releases owner cash while keeping the asset and the upside. Here is how it works and when to use it.

Borrower Advisory Business Case & ROI

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Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

Financing StrategyBorrower Advisory

The Buy-Sell Priced the Shares. It Did Not Fund Them.

A buy-sell agreement settles who can trigger a sale and exactly what the shares are worth. It usually settles funding in one sentence naming life insurance, which pays on only one of the five events that can fire it.

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Capital Markets & TrendsBorrower Advisory

The Debt Came Back. The Senior Debt Did Not.

Acquisition leverage has recovered to roughly where it stood at the 2021 peak. On platform deals the senior layer has not, and the gap was filled by junior capital, which is not the pool most buyers approach first.

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Financing StrategyBorrower Advisory

Most Debt Is a Fixed Number. This One Is a Multiple of MRR.

A term loan is sized once and never changes. A committed facility against recurring revenue is sized as a multiple of monthly revenue, and availability rises as that revenue rises, without a second underwriting.

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