Thalos Capital Research

Insights

Commercial finance analysis and practical guidance, equipment, working capital, asset-based lending, and strategic debt, for business owners, executives, and finance leaders across the United States and Canada.

Bar chart comparing private credit market expansion to $1.5 to $2 trillion against bank commercial lending standard tightening in 2026 for business acquisitions

The Acquisition Financing Landscape Has Shifted. Most Buyers Are Still Using Last Cycle's Playbook.

Bank standards tightened. Private credit expanded. The capital stack for buying a business changed. Most buyers haven't caught up. Here's what shifted and what it means for your next deal.
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Bar chart showing the federal funds rate at 3.63% today, rising to an implied 3.8% by late 2026 and 4.0% by mid 2027, with no rate cut expected before 2027 according to futures pricing.

The Rate Cut Your Capital Plan Is Counting On Is Not Coming

The 2026 rate cuts your capital plan assumed are gone. The Fed is on hold, banks are tighter, and capital has shifted to private credit. How to structure financing for the rate environment that actually exists.
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Equipment FinancingWorking CapitalAsset-Based LendingStrategic Debt