Tag

borrowing capacity

4 insights

A grid of 100 squares, each worth $100,000 of a software company's $10 million ARR. Seventy squares are other customers and count toward borrowing. Thirty belong to the largest customer: twenty count and ten, the excess above a 20 percent concentration cap, do not.

Your Biggest Customer Grew. Your Borrowing Capacity Did Not.

A $10 million ARR software company adds $2 million of new ARR. From its largest customer, that lifts borrowing capacity by $240,000. From two new customers, the same ARR lifts it by $1.44 million, six times as much.
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Column chart showing three borrowing capacity readings for the same distributor: $4.6 million on a cash flow reading, $6.7 million on an asset reading, and $8.2 million on a blended reading shown in the darkest navy, against a $6 million financing need.

One Balance Sheet. Three Different Answers.

A distributor doing $40 million in revenue needs $6 million. Read against cash flow it is short. Read against its assets it clears. Read as a blend it borrows $8.2 million. Same company, same week, three answers.
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Dot plot of June 2026 factory index components showing headline PMI at 53.3 above the 50 line while employment sits at 49.7 in contraction and input prices at 73.0 remain elevated.

Expansion On Paper. A Squeeze Underneath.

A factory index above 50 reads as a growth signal, but hiring is still contracting and input costs are still high. Why financing sized to the headline misreads a margin story as a volume story.
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Line chart showing core PCE inflation rising from 3.0% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May 2026, with the Federal Reserve projecting 3.6% at year-end 2026.

Your Borrowing Capacity Is Shrinking While You Wait

The rate outlook flipped and commercial bankruptcy filings are climbing. Why the debt capacity you modeled last year is shrinking, and how to bring current assumptions to the lender call.
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